TdF 2012

[fergs]

Predictions? Comments?

I'm in a pool that requires me to fill in the top 3 for each stage, it's doing my head in!

I still can't decide: Evans or Wiggins for overall GC. I don't think Ryder will do it, the Giro is going to show up in his legs just like it did for Contador, plus there is a lot of ITT this year. Too bad there's no TTT this year, it would have made picking the overall team classification a lot easier.

[sprinter]

If Wiggins can get through the first week without breaking something he's got my vote. He's won ever stage race that he has entered. I would love to see Horner win but that is a super long shot.

[PaulB]

Originally Posted by sprinter

I would love to see Horner win but that is a super long shot.

No kidding, for anyone on Radio Shack, I think. Bruyneel isn't going to be at the Tour and the team sounds like a bit of a gong show this year.

I think Vande Velde will eventually emerge as Garmin's GC contender, unless Ryder has recovered spectacularly from the Giro.

It'll be interesting to see how Sky balances Wiggins for GC with Cavendish for points.

[Duncan]

Maybe Hesjedal? It would be a long-shot, but look at the course - 3 individual time trials (including the prologue or 101 km of ITT combined). This will throw a monkey wrench in for the pure climbers who traditionally dominate on the strength of their prowess in the mountains. Ryder is the sort of all-rounder who could upset the applecart if he can compete in the mountains. The mountain stages are also pretty broken up over the tour, with 5 mountains over 10 days (that's 1/2 the length of the Tour!) - with 2 rest days thrown in there as well. This may further disadvantage the mountain goats - the hard-men of the hillclimbs, who rely on the day-to-day grind of the mountains to wear down other contenders. Cadel Evans (no slouch on the TT either) said yesterday:

"The Tour won't be won or lost in the mountains, it will only sort out he contenders. But the Tour will certainly be won or lost in the time trials."

You gotta believe in Ryder!

Cavendish for the green ... I think Team Sky needs to ride with a lot more discipline in general - other than in the sprint finishes, they are such a bunch of underachievers, IMHO.

[sprinter]

Team Sky underachievers WHAT????

2012 results for Bradley Wiggins

1st Overall Paris-Nice
1st Overall Tour de Romandie
1st Overall Critérium du Dauphiné
3rd Overall Volta ao Algarve

And as much as would like Hesjedal to win Wiggins is much fresher and is a stronger TT.

[JCL]

Wigo for the win. He's the man.

[Oldfart]

Sagan for the green. Cav will I think forego the green to be better prepped for the Olympics so I think he'll not go for the intermediate sprints that you need for the green.

I am thinking maybe Wiggins has raced too well this spring. Did he overdo it? Evans I like too but he's getting on in years which hits like a ton of bricks. He has been setting the Tour as his major goal for so many years this may be a case where an athlete having finally achieved that goal now lacks the motivation. I don't think it is but we'll see.

Nibali might be a good bet too. He's focused on the tour this year. Frank Schleck will be up there, until the TT's where he'll loose heaps of time. I think Ryder will discover that the Giro has taken something out of him later in the Tour. I think top ten is very realistic a podium. Too many others have put their eggs in the Tour Basket.

[jitenshakun]

I'm still dealing with Andy Schleck being out for the tour

[Duncan]

Originally Posted by sprinter

Team Sky underachievers WHAT????

I should have qualified that - I meant in Grand Tours (Cav and his leadout train excluded).

Originally Posted by sprinter

And as much as would like Hesjedal to win Wiggins is much fresher and is a stronger TT.

Wiggins comes from a track/pursuit background, so he is definitely a threat on the TT. Ryder has said the more riding he does, the better he feels and he has a track record of finishing strong at the TDF, the Vuelta and of course the Giro. Wiggins has cracked on Grand Tours before, but this well could be his year. Ryder has a monumental task in front of him, but here's to just hoping ...

[Duncan]

Prologe tomorrow Saturday Jun 30 ... live 5:30-8:30 am on TSN2. 198 riders. Ryder is number 61, so presumeably he'll start 61 from the end (131th?). Hesjedal is also the only Canuck this year.

Edit: Hesjedal starts at position 192, after Wiggins (188 ) and before Evans (198 ).

[AlanB]

Three time trial this year! I heard that Ryder is good at time trials.

[gotham]

Ryder finishes 15th, 11 seconds back of Wigo and 1 second behind Cadel.

Ryde baby Ryde!

Incidentally, if anyone can recommend a way to watch this online via an iOS device then I will provide reps.

[nortonwhis]

if anyone can get find me a free stream i would also provide repz

[sprinter]

It looked fabulous in HD on TSN2 this morning.

[KenN]

Nobody in the media has even mentioned Ryder as a contender, despite his Giro win and the fact that he's pretty much been resting since the Giro finished. No major race starts at all. He looked pretty solid on today's TT, and even though he ranked 15th I'm sure he's working toward serious GC contention, so not wanting to blow his load on day 1. Eighteen seconds back is not a bad place to be at this stage. There is for sure some tough competition, but I give him a better shot than the media seems to think.

Talk about heart-wrenching start for Martin ... harsh luck to start day 1 with a double mechanical. He could've had a hell of a lead after stage 1!

Cadel looks like a man possessed. At his age, this could be his last real shot at a repeat, someone this hungry for the win will be racing an all-or-nothing style.


Ken.