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Old 12-05-2008, 05:13 PM   #1
Pedro2005
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How low must oil go before...
How low must oil go before Alberta is really f...ed?

Right now it's $41.97.

Pedro
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Originally Posted by gooch
Pedro does bring up some good points, but being only one R off of Pedo .... discounts much of that
"ANYONE can have the American dream...but not EVERYONE can have the American dream"

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Old 12-05-2008, 05:59 PM   #2
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Alberta has a lot of money socked away in the Heritage Fund so it must go low and stay low for a while.
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Old 12-05-2008, 06:11 PM   #3
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I think I was wondering how low does it have to drop for it to have a major impact on employment.

Even though, the province might have savings, companies won't keep operating at a loss.

Pedro
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Originally Posted by gooch
Pedro does bring up some good points, but being only one R off of Pedo .... discounts much of that
"ANYONE can have the American dream...but not EVERYONE can have the American dream"

"Looking for a fight, look a gypsy in the eye..."
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Old 12-05-2008, 06:17 PM   #4
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it's already affecting employment here. Although, traditionally this time of year it slows down a lot because of the cold-- so we'll have to see if things pick up in spring like they usually do, if not then obviously it is affecting employment.

Lot's of projects are being put on hold and less and less jobs out there. The biggest thing is they are offering less and less subsistence allowance for people to work up in Ft McMurray-- that is going to hurt a lot of people that are counting on renters making that SUB and helping pay down their mortgages.

I personally predict not so good times in Alberta very soon for the layman as so many have grown accustomed to the money and live like it is going to last forever. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'm just glad Im fleeing this country for a year or two in two months while things implode.

Like Lee said, the Heritage Fund is bulging so the government should be good and this allows the government to cut back on royalties... which I don't necesarily agree with.
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Old 12-05-2008, 06:28 PM   #5
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So armchair economists...

How low is oil going to sink. And how long will it stay low?
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Old 12-05-2008, 06:30 PM   #6
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Peak Oil!
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Old 12-05-2008, 06:30 PM   #7
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Heritage Fund stands at just under 16 billion as of their 2Q08 statement in September, and reported a 1.2 billion loss in that quarter. Mostly due to losses in US equities and money markets.

Wonder where it'll be for 3Q08??

Kn.
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Old 12-05-2008, 06:32 PM   #8
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So armchair economists...

How low is oil going to sink. And how long will it stay low?
Short term, I have no idea, but long term, I'm 100% confident that oil is going nowhere but up. We are so dependent on oil, no matter how much people bitch and complain, they'll keep paying for it until it's physically impossible to extract any more.
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Old 12-05-2008, 06:33 PM   #9
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So armchair economists...

How low is oil going to sink. And how long will it stay low?
Prognostication is fruitless.

Wait and see what OPEC does at their mid-Dec meeting. They've openly stated that they want to see a price of 70-80 USD, so we'll see what they do to achieve that. November's meeting they agreed to cut OPEC output by 1.5m boe/d. Checking the numbers in early Dec, member nations had actually implemented cuts totaling just over 1.0m boe/d.

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Old 12-05-2008, 06:34 PM   #10
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poz - i was just thinking about you./ You're a smart guy with good timing. Your round-the-worlder and sock the money away couldn't have been timed better. Good work!
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Old 12-05-2008, 06:36 PM   #11
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So armchair economists...

How low is oil going to sink. And how long will it stay low?
$35 briefly and then it'll surpass $150 by mid-summer.

i pulled those numbers out of my ass but keep in mind that my ass puts out good shit daily unlike 99% of the economists out there.
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Old 12-05-2008, 06:39 PM   #12
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$35 briefly and then it'll surpass $150 by mid-summer.

i pulled those numbers out of my ass but keep in mind that my ass puts out good shit daily unlike 99% of the economists out there.
Funny cause it's true!!

Plussssss repz.

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Old 12-06-2008, 12:03 AM   #13
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poz - i was just thinking about you./ You're a smart guy with good timing. Your round-the-worlder and sock the money away couldn't have been timed better. Good work!
Thanks Lee. Ya we definitely threaded a needle on this one! I was just thinking about that the other day myself. My only mistake was not coming up here a month or two earlier because the money jobs dried up quicker than I was expecting. Either way we are good to go for at least a year.

Now if only it would snow a bit in BC so I could enjoy some skiing before leaving.
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Old 12-06-2008, 12:15 AM   #14
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poz - if there's one's thing i can do is find snow so look me up before you go
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Old 12-06-2008, 01:44 AM   #15
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poz - i was just thinking about you
get a room...

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