Manaslu avy

[brian]

first person account from Greg Hill.

http://www.greghill.ca/pages/disaste...es-on-manaslu/

[Sideshow]

scary, by his account it was avoidable. Damn people, why take the chance? Greg and his crew saw the risk and camped out of the slide zone. So sad, and how horrible it must have been to be part of the rescue effort.

[norona]

Originally Posted by Sideshow

scary, by his account it was avoidable. Damn people, why take the chance? Greg and his crew saw the risk and camped out of the slide zone. So sad, and how horrible it must have been to be part of the rescue effort.

I do agree with you but this also could have been a classic example of people having the group mentality of where they see others camped there and think it must be safe...this happened in Revy a few years ago where people placed themselves on sleds right in an avy path, same group mentality. As greg mentioned some people sometimes are blinded by a risk they did not even think about cause they are focused on a much bigger risk of making the summit. Sad day forsure and a great account that must have been hard to do after living that...

[rewoga]

Glen Plake was in it...http://www.wildsnow.com/8278/plake-m...diamond-pieps/

[Sharon]

Originally Posted by BMW

I find the comparison irritating and offensive - to me it is not even in the same ball park.

I'll say. Those people could have easily stood in a safe area, like where there were trees.

Looks like from the photos of the Manaslu avi where weren't a lot of safe places to be. Sounds like there were more people there then normal too.

[Joe Dick]

heard and interview with greg on the cbc this morning.

there is a link in this report. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/...avalanche.html

[norona]

Originally Posted by BMW

I find the comparison irritating and offensive - to me it is not even in the same ball park.

probably cause they were sledders over mountaineers, but it is the same group issue, people will do stupid things in a large group that they might not do if they were a smaller group. Greg writes about this how he thought where that main group stayed was vey sketchy which is why they did not stay there...what his group did is not the norm...I am not suggesting that the people are dumb, just a mentality that is hard to get past when you arrive to see top mountaineers camped at a spot, you may not even think about some dangers that linger...just becasue you think they would know, wouldn't they...

[norona]

Originally Posted by Sharon

I'll say. Those people could have easily stood in a safe area, like where there were trees.

Looks like from the photos of the Manaslu avi where weren't a lot of safe places to be. Sounds like there were more people there then normal too.

I agree Sharon, but they did not because of the trust many put into others, if they see people that are better than them or people that know more in an area they are more likely to think it is safe...when it might not be at all. Some obviously thought is was safe otherwise why would you camp there. I am not judging their decisions on this, as I was not there nor can you tell the entire story unless you were there, however it is interesting that that many people would feel fine to camp there, when it was not....nonetheless it is very sad.

[tacklebox]

Originally Posted by rewoga

Glen Plake was in it...http://www.wildsnow.com/8278/plake-m...diamond-pieps/

He was reportedly in his sleeping bag reading his bible.

Moses got the tablets,Plake gets an avvie.

[Sideshow]

I don't think that Dave's point was offensive in a any way. Especially from a newbie's point of view. If I rolled in and saw a crowd of people with way more experience i may be inclined to trust the group of my newbie instincts.

I was discussing this with someone today, and often it seem the more experienced also have more confidence and may even let their guard down.

By reading the report from Greg, it seemed that this was a rookie move by people that were far from rookies....Glen Plake was skiing big mountain when I was learning what a ski was.

[Sharon]

Originally Posted by Joe Dick

heard and interview with greg on the cbc this morning.

there is a link in this report. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/...avalanche.html

Awesome interview.

Good time to review this article on Heuristic traps...
http://www.snowpit.com/articles/traps%20reprint.pdf


Abstract: Even though people are capable of making decisions in a thorough and methodical way, it appears that
most of the time they don’t. A growing body of research suggests that people unconsciously use simple rules of
thumb, or heuristics, to navigate the routine complexities of modern life. In this paper, I examine evidence that four
of these heuristics – familiarity, social proof, commitment and scarcity – have influenced the decisions of avalanche
victims. Using a quantitative method to define the level of hazard exposure in 598 avalanche accidents in the
United States, I compare the behavior of the victims when heuristic cues were present to their behavior when these
cues were absent. Key findings of this study include: 1) evidence that social proof, commitment, and scarcity traps
were significant in many accidents, 2) evidence that group size influenced susceptibility to certain heuristic traps,
and 3) evidence that the level of avalanche training in victims influenced their susceptibility to heuristic traps.
These findings strongly support the idea that tools for managing heuristic traps are essential for effective avalanche
education.

While this avalanche was natural, the number of people and where they camped contributed to the tragedy.

I get wigged out in the backcountry when I see a lot of groups in one area...

[rewoga]

^^ I fell into that trap last winter...

http://citizenclass.cp-sms.biz/entri.../bad-decisions

[Joe Dick]

both Rules Based and Knowledge Based Decision makers can fall subject to heuristic traps. but I think what BMW is getting at is one user group would be classified as unconscious ignorance while the other group would fall more in the realm of conscious (or perhaps unconscious) competence. yet both out comes were much the same!

might be also be useful focusing on what went right in both situations, being that the out comes of both could have been much worse.

thats my arm chair for the day. carry on.

[norona]

Originally Posted by BMW

Actually no it's not because they were sledders over mountaineers. Although for me, that says a lot right there. But the old boy sledders around here, I have a lot of respect for, just not those prairie boys who don't know !@#$ and couldn't be bothered to learn and their disrespect for the natural environment. On the other hand, many mountaineers who go to the Himalayas are no better (from what I have seen of the garbage dumps at the base of mountains). Pack it in pack it out.

I understand your point about 'group mentality' - I call them sheeple.

But I still find the comparison poor because of the logistics behind the Big Iron Shoot Out - perhaps you are not well informed as to the 'big picture' concerning the Big Iron Shoot Out. It had nothing to do with the same kind of group mentality, the Big Iron Shoot Out was an unsanctioned event in Revelstoke that went ahead despite the public avalanche warnings by the CAA declaring the avalanche hazard as extreme. The organizer (who fled the country in hours of the avalanche because he was afraid of being arrested due to negligence) of the event and the snomo club/society did nothing to prevent the competition when they could have. The whole idea of high marking up an avalanche slope during extreme avalanche hazard and making it a competition was just that. And if you are stupid enough to go into the backcountry despite all the warnings and park your sled at the bottom of a huge avalanche slope you get what you deserve. We call it Darwinism around here.

I get your point but do not see the similarities at all except that they both involve a lot of moving snow and a bunch of people getting caught in an avalanche.

I agree that people made very poor decisions to hold the big iron shoot out as well as the people who hit the slopes that day on a high warning! Dumb for sure! However the incident was not during the big iron shoot out, it was after the event in a different area after the event had taken place, still dumb of course and these guys were probably pump after watching their hero's which is still dumb, I had many guide friends who were Heli skii g and came into help so I do know lots about the mistakes made that day, it like this recent incident are both sad as lives were lost , period! Making the comparrison was not my intent but more talking about group mentality in both cases this failed! To me that is a fact. I do a lot of work within the avalanche community and I am always interested in the way people are swayed by epic snow, group mentality and other things despite seeing or hearing about condition's that should stop them but don't.

[leverfingers]

It should be said that Greg's party might have also been swept away. Judging by the photos, there is no place that is really "safe" up there. No trees. No cliff or rock that a very big slide couldn't overtop. And you can read it between the lines in his account that he chose the least unsafe place he could find. Not a safe place. When it comes to mother nature, we are mere bugs to be squashed. When the hand comes down, will you be under the palm, or get lucky and be between the fingers and still standing after the slap?