TdF and Lance

[davel]

Are people pulling for Armstrong to win his 7th TdF before retiring?

Personally, I'd like to see him win again, but more importantly, I'd like
to see a good tour.

People put up a good fight. No drug scandals. No favourites crashing out. Nothing bad. Just good cycling and lots of great action. I'd like to
see racing at its best, and someone challenge Armstrong on his last
TdF.

Can Ullrich, Mayo or perhaps Basso come up with a win?

I'd love to see Thomas Voekler in yellow again this year. That guy has
the biggest heart I've seen in years. For me, he made watching sports
exciting and inspiring again.

Just my $0.02,
Dave

[Aldo Nova]

i agree with what you said; armstrong wins, then moves out of the way for the other very deserving riders in the next few years. but on top of that i want to see a good race with the same points as you said

[Robot]

IMO, Armstrong shouldn't 'move out of the way' unless he wants to. A deserving rider is one who unseats the top of the heap. Sure there are a number of quality riders out there but, up to this point, no one's been able to unseat the man for a while.

I know there are a lot of behind-the-scene politics going down and I'd love for nothing more than a really competitive, controversy-free Tour this year. If Armstrong could pull out a win when all of the other riders were at the top of their game, it would really strengthen his case for one of the best ever.

But yeah, I wouldn't be surprised to see Armstrong stomp his competition in the mountains. Again.

[Uncle Duke]

...more dope than cheech and chong.

[sanrensho]

1. Armstrong
2. Ullrich
3. Basso

Basso already shot his load in the Giro, he'll be good but not as good Armstrong for the full three weeks. Ullrich, perennial runner-up, will rise again to take his rightful spot on the 2nd place podium.

Mayo might be good in the mountains, but he's still a poor TT'er.

Armstrong is also bringing the strongest team he's ever had, and his record against the Telekom boys speaks for itself.

[Wayne P]

This is THE one Tour that I'm questioning Lance's ability to win. I'm hoping he does because he's a pleasure to watch, especially after last years' tour. Ullrich will be lucky to escape with a 2nd, unless he has a healthy Vinokourov or Kloden. Vino may be in a better spot than Jan.

Can't wait!

[biopace]

Personally, I'd say Lance is a good bet, even without Ekimov in the lineup. He's still got the strongest team, and unless Ullrich and Kloeden (are they even racing on the same team this year?) can learn how to work together, I'm not sure if anyone will touch him. He's probably learned a lot from last year. Barring anything like Merckx in '75, of course!

[sanrensho]

Ullrich and Kloeden (are they even racing on the same team this year?)

Kloden is still there on Telekom, aka the Black Hole of cycling. It happened to Livingston, Savoldelli, Botero and Evans, and it looks like the same is happening to Kloden this year. He's ridden terribly this year and looks to be a TdF also-ran along with Heras.

[LeeLau]

Floyd landis - allez allez

[Aldo Nova]

what i meant by "moving out of the way" is finishing on his own will, at the top of the world (TdF podium)

[sanrensho]

Floyd landis - allez allez

Floyd and the Phonak boys (primarily Oscar Pereiro) could definitely throw a wrench in the works for Telekom as they slug it out for podium spots No. 2 and 3.

Scary to think, but consider how well Lance rode last year after beating Ullrich by just a minute in 2003. Last TdF and last professional race of his career=I think LA will be super motivated.

[Farmer]

probalby a stupid question, but when does the tour start?

PS, I'm pulling for lance to win

[sprinter]

The race starts on Saturday

[switch]

I hope there's less carnage than last year's race.

[sanrensho]

The Beloki crash in '03 was pretty horrible. I was not impressed when his team director tried to lift him up by the shoulders after the crash, even though he was obviously in very rough condition (multiple broken bones, hip fracture).

[brian]

I would say Lance then Vino and Basso. After that it's anybody's guess. Landis? Leipheimer? Karpets maybe? Not sure which Ullrich will show up.

Unfortunately I don't have TV this time so I'll have follow it on the web. That is until Stage 13 and 14 when I'll actually be there.

[wallyjames]

Ullrich has done it again and stayed with T Mobile so he has no hope of the win. Admittedly they did leave Zabel at home this time but still they bring three captains to the race. No commitment to Ullrich, so what hope does he have?

Armstrong, Bruyneel and Discovery do everything that little bit more seriously than everyone else. Everything from training harder, more course recon, more wind tunnel time, better race tactics, single-purpose team selections, it all adds up. Lance and his team management really have re-written the book on how to win the Tour. Naturally anything can happen, but realistically he is the class of the field and is unlikely to be bettered this year.

However it will be an interesting tour. Don't listen to the doorknobs who say it can't possibly be any good to watch, because of the shorter time trials, fewer mountain top finishes. Those guys are just sour graping on it all because they don't like seeing Lance win another so they're down on the Tour ("The Giro is better," blah blah blah). For those very reasons we are going to see more action than for quite a while. The usual places to attack are the TTs and long alpine stages, but Lance is the master of those as we've seen. The contenders know they need to attack him and it will happen earlier than you think. Transition stages (some climbing but not the big mountains) will be prime for this. Two examples come to mind from 2003: Vinoukourov geting away on the stage leaving the Alps and putting the lead under such pressure that Beloki crashed trying to catch him, and turning Lance into an XC rider. The other would be Tyler Hamilton's epic solo 140 km break to win by 5 minutes (with a broken collarbone). Where did he get away from the field? On a Cat 3 climb.

What I'm getting at is the most serious attacks may not necessarily come where you expect them. Mayo's hopes were dashed last year on the cobbles in stage 3. Yes he crashed, but watch the tape, USPS and T Mobile clearly planned that savage attack on the cobble section because they both had team personnel waiting on foot at the end of the cobbles to hand up bottles. There was a plot afoot and Mayo got caught big time. It's going to be interesting every single day. Expect a big attack the day after the TTT when the Discos are tired from a huge effort. No doubt some team managers have already decided to tank the team time trial somewhat and keep their guy fresh for a big break attempt the day after.

Discovery has a strong, experienced team and they all are there for a single purpose - put Lance in yellow. I think they have the horsepower to hold off challengers. If he was on a team that would support him 100%, my money would be on Vinoukourov. He's more aggressive and driven than anyone else out there except Lance. His wins come despite his team, not because of them.

Don't forget to watch the prologue tomorrow. It's long, 18 km, and all in one direction. If the wind is blowing in the rider's faces like it was all week, we will see some serious time differences emerge even before stage 1. There go Robbie McEwen's chances of wearing yellow! Expect Lance to place highly but not win. He will most likely monitor the splits via radio and make sure he keeps pace with the contenders, but he prefers not to wear yellow too early. Too much work for the team to defend.

[Wayne P]

Mayo's hopes were dashed last year on the cobbles in stage 3. Yes he crashed, but watch the tape, USPS and T Mobile clearly planned that savage attack on the cobble section because they both had team personnel waiting on foot at the end of the cobbles to hand up bottles. There was a plot afoot and Mayo got caught big time.

That part was amazing. Seeing Hincapie pull like mad was inspiring to say the least.

[sanrensho]

Mayo's hopes were dashed last year on the cobbles in stage 3. Yes he crashed, but watch the tape, USPS and T Mobile clearly planned that savage attack on the cobble section because they both had team personnel waiting on foot at the end of the cobbles to hand up bottles. There was a plot afoot and Mayo got caught big time.

I think all of the major teams, including Euskatel, knew that it would be holeshot racing into the cobbles. However, only USPS took the strategy serious enough and had the muscle to pull it off. The OLN coverage didn't show the full run-in to the holeshot moment, but it was pretty clear that the speeds were ramping up well before the cobbles started. Mayo and his Euskatel team were just weak and weren't capable of riding at the front.

I didn't notice about the USPS staff waiting at the end of the cobbles, I'll have to look at the tape again.

I thought that was a great stage, too, with Hincapie and Ekimov raging over the cobbles.

[sanrensho]

Live coverage starts tomorrow at 8:30 AM on OLN. (Pre-race show starts at 5:30.) Guaranteed, there will some losers and surprises tomorrow.

Full schedule here (times shown are EST):

http://www.tsn.ca/oln/tour_de_france/feature.asp?fid=9699

[biopace]

Does anyone know if there is another way to view the Tour, other than OLN? Ideally online?

ps Anyone coming out to watch the Yaletown Grand Prix tonight?

[sanrensho]

All I've heard is that a live audio stream (in English) will be available here:

http://www.eurosport.com/tourdefrance2005/

Supposedly, somebody was distributing the OLN feed on BitTorrent last year.

[wallyjames]

I think all of the major teams, including Euskatel, knew that it would be holeshot racing into the cobbles. However, only USPS took the strategy serious enough and had the muscle to pull it off. The OLN coverage didn't show the full run-in to the holeshot moment, but it was pretty clear that the speeds were ramping up well before the cobbles started. Mayo and his Euskatel team were just weak and weren't capable of riding at the front.

I didn't notice about the USPS staff waiting at the end of the cobbles, I'll have to look at the tape again.

I thought that was a great stage, too, with Hincapie and Ekimov raging over the cobbles.

It's standard practice for top teams to move to the front coming into a hazardous section like those cobbles. But clearly Postal had planned to take it a step further and attack once on the cobbles. Pave meisters Ekimov and Hincapie were ready to go and they pulled the trigger, with only Armstrong and Ullrich able to follow their wheels. Chances are they had no clear idea of who had been caught in the pileup, but it didn't matter, they were already committed to the attack. That has to be one of my favourite Tour moments from over the years, Ekimov and Hicapie were men possessed.

[pete@nsmb.com]

I don't agree with it all but a lot of it makes sense and you were right about Lance avoiding the yellow on day 1. He was riding like he could have had it but I'll bet he and Bruyneel engineered a 2nd place.

It's going to be good this year.

[Wayne P]

I don't agree with it all but a lot of it makes sense and you were right about Lance avoiding the yellow on day 1. He was riding like he could have had it but I'll bet he and Bruyneel engineered a 2nd place.

It's going to be good this year.

Lance never wants to be in yellow after the first stage, even though it has happened. They usually try to engineer a finish ahead of his overall competitors. Its too much pressure to keep it, and etiquette says that you must defend it. That was a masterful second place finish. 2 seconds?! Can they plan a finish or what?

The guy who won slayed. Good on him. As much as I'd like to see a Canadian in there killing it, its nice to see some North American boys taking it to the Euros.

He/they are going to have fun with it this year. I hope he goes off on a break in the early stages.

Vinokourov should be the new captain of T-Mobile by now. Was Kloden in there?

[Ralph Wiggum]

I just saw some commentator say somebody was riding like a sack of potatoes :lol:
then he said someone else was riding like a diesel that hasn't been cleaned lately
he's mean

[thewalrus]

Cyclingnews has some excellent photos of the time trial bikes used in today's prologue:

http://www.cyclingnews.com/photos/2005/tour05/tech/bikes1/IMG_0227.jpg


http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2005/tour05/tech/?id=/tech/2005/features/tour05/lance_tour_tt_bike

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2005/tour05/tech/?id=/tech/2005/features/tour05/bikes1

[biopace]

Check this out:

http://www.canadiancyclist.com/races05/TDF/prologue/index.htm

the fourth and fifth pictures in are two of the best I've seen. Captures the Armstrong-Ullrich pass absolutely perfectly. In the fourth, you can just see Ullrich's helmet turned as he sees Lance blow by him.

[sanrensho]

Lance didn't even appear to throw his bike at the end. That's a sure sign that he let up. If he had really wanted today's stage, he would have been rocking all over his bike to make up one or two seconds.

Perfect strategy. This way, the CSC boys will burn lots of energy trying to defend the yellow and chase down breaks over the next couple of stages.

[wallyjames]

Forget Ullrich's training crash. That doesn't explain today's events; he placed a reasonable 12th whilst the uninjured Kloden placed 51st, 2 minutes behind the winner. Armstrong and Zabriskie were on fire, that's what happened. No one else took this funny little short time trial seriously enough and they have all paid the price.

I don't see Ullrich pulling out of the race, and to say he is no longer the team captain is premature as well. The justification for both statements come from pride: both Ullrich's as an individual and T Mobile's as a team. There has been a massive media buildup posing Ulrich as the last great hope to dethrone Armstrong and they won't walk away from that without a whimper. After all he is only 15 seconds behind Vinoukourov on day 1. He just had the misfortune to be physically passed by Armstrong on the road. So much has been written about the Armstrong-Ullrich battles over the years that it was bound to be blown up, but everyone else took a thrashing as well.

[thewalrus]

here's zabriskie's winning bike. the rear wheel is dimpled like a golf ball - more photos of it on the zipp site

http://www.cervelo.com/bikes/2005%20images/2005-P3Carbon-full.jpg

[biopace]

Forget Ullrich's training crash. That doesn't explain today's events; he placed a reasonable 12th

You're joking, right? You're telling me going through the rear window of your pace car at 60km/h wouldn't affect your ride the next day?

Think of what Ullrich could have done if that crash hadn't happened.

[switch]

You're joking, right? You're telling me going through the rear window of your pace car at 60km/h wouldn't affect your ride the next day?That was harsh. He doesn't have much luck going into the Tour.


here's zabriskie's winning bike. the rear wheel is dimpled like a golf ball - more photos of it on the zipp site

http://www.cervelo.com/bikes/2005%20images/2005-P3Carbon-full.jpg Canadian pride! 8)


Lance couldn't have road the stage any better.

[wallyjames]

You're joking, right? You're telling me going through the rear window of your pace car at 60km/h wouldn't affect your ride the next day?

Think of what Ullrich could have done if that crash hadn't happened.

The point is, none of the other top contenders had a crash and they were all humiliated yesterday as well. Ullrich said himself in the media that the crash didn't damage his performance, he was able to give 100%. Jan is well known for early season fitness problems and has definitely shown up sub-par at the Tour prologue in the past. He's been able to ride into form previously but there was nowhere to hide yesterday. I think a few of the other big boys got caught the same way. Basso is still recovering from max efforts at the Giro, Mayo has had very few race days this season, etc etc. Once again Armstrong and Bruyneel examined the entire route in exquisite detail and spotted a fine opportunity to make time on everyone.

[biopace]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/other_sports/cycling/4646717.stm

The Texan [Armstrong] was quick to defend Ullrich, who performed below par after suffering a nasty crash on Friday.

"I talked to him today," said Armstrong.

"If you go into the back of the car and shatter the window with no helmet on, that's got to effect you.

"So you can't take anything away from him after the way he rode. He'll be better in a few days time."


Two days into the race and you're writing people off and predicting the winner?

[wallyjames]

Biopace, if you check back in the threads you'll see I predicted the winner before the race started: Armstrong, then Vinokourov. Ullrich has never made more than 45 seconds on Armstrong during previous tours, so I'm not about to change my mind at this point. Naturally unexpected things can happen, like illness and accidents, but my opinion still stands that Armstrong is the most complete Tour rider and has the best team and preparation for the task at hand. The events of stage 1 only confirm that belief. What I'm really going to enjoy is watching all the contenders making attacks these next three weeks. And they're going to get more and more desperate as time goes by...

[Smoke]

Biopace, if you check back in the threads you'll see I predicted the winner before the race started: Armstrong, then Vinokourov. Ullrich has never made more than 45 seconds on Armstrong during previous tours, so I'm not about to change my mind at this point. Naturally unexpected things can happen, like illness and accidents, but my opinion still stands that Armstrong is the most complete Tour rider and has the best team and preparation for the task at hand. The events of stage 1 only confirm that belief. What I'm really going to enjoy is watching all the contenders making attacks these next three weeks. And they're going to get more and more desperate as time goes by...

Man, I don't care how much sense you start talking around here.......

...you're still just another Wally to me.


Now if Boonen ever learns to climb we might have a contender on our hands.

[pete@nsmb.com]

Man, I don't care how much sense you start talking around here.......

...you're still just another Wally to me.


Now if Boonen ever learns to climb we might have a contender on our hands.

I think Boonie's too big to ever be a real climber.

Nice to see Bertogliati out on the break today - he just got added to the Saunier Duval team at the last minute. He's a good guy - I've met him here in the office a few times and seen him out riding as well - local kid from around Lugano. HUGE legs. Was in yellow for a few days in 03 as a complete surprise. Forza Rubens!

My prediction for today is McEwen. I think losing to Boonen stung. He says he had to start his spring too early to avoid getting boxed in...maybe Boonen is just too strong. We'll see. Robbie is a cagey bastard, and if the battle is him v Boonen for the greem, it should be full of fireworks.

[thewalrus]

I think Boonie's too big to ever be a real climber.


Aren't all the 'best' climbers around 135-140 pounds? If I remember correctly Marco Pantani was about that size, but maybe his climbing ability was due to all the drugs... :dizzy: :dizzy: :dizzy: :dizzy: :dizzy: :dizzy:

[switch]

My prediction for today is McEwen. I think losing to Boonen stung.And he was stung again.

Crazy sprint at the end. I could hear them play "Put Your Head On My Shoulder".

[Wayne P]

Aren't all the 'best' climbers around 135-140 pounds? If I remember correctly Marco Pantani was about that size, but maybe his climbing ability was due to all the drugs... :dizzy: :dizzy: :dizzy: :dizzy: :dizzy: :dizzy:


Boonan's not too big...look at Ullrich. Probably in the top 3 or 4 for climbing ability in the tour and a big dude. Similar is Hincapie. Its just not a sprinter's specialty - better fast twitch muscle power than sustained climbing endurance. It does help to be light of course.

If you look at Lances' torso - he's all lung. He looks like he swallowed an old wooden barrel. He's definitely not the smallest climber, but he sure is the best. I think that his lung capacity has something to do with his success (amongst other things).

Vinokourov(sp?) looks like a brick shithouse, but can match mostly anyone climbing the mountains.

[wallyjames]

I wondered when John Boy would wake up and say hello...

[switch]

If you look at Lances' torso - he's all lung. He looks like he swallowed an old wooden barrel. He's definitely not the smallest climber, but he sure is the best. I think that his lung capacity has something to do with his success (amongst other things).His physique is similar to that of a swimmer; he only lacks the broad shoulders.

Where Lance excels is in his output power to body weight ratio, which is more than marginally higher than the other riders, as well as his ability to sustain a high heart rate.